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Decision Framework

A structured framework for making go/no-go decisions at key milestones throughout the journey.

Decision Framework Philosophy

Building a startup requires hundreds of decisions. This framework provides clear criteria for the most important ones: when to start, when to pivot, and when to stop.

Decision Point 1: Start Development?

Timing: After Pre-Development Validation (Month 1)

โœ“ Green Light Criteria (GO)

100+ waitlist signups from target audience

70%+ of interviews validate the problem

10+ people say they'd pay โ‚ฌ99/month

Clear competitive differentiation identified

Founder has 20+ hours/week to commit for 6 months

โœ— Red Light Criteria (NO-GO)

Fewer than 50 waitlist signups after Month 1

Less than 50% of interviewees validate the problem

No one willing to pay โ€” everyone wants it free

Incumbent competitors already solving the problem well

Decision Point 2: Launch Private Beta?

Timing: After MVP Development (Month 4-5)

โœ“ Green Light Criteria (GO)

All core features working (auth, listings, access requests, messaging)

No critical bugs in testing

50+ qualified users ready to join beta

20-30 sellers with real listings ready to go live

Support system in place (email or dedicated support hours)

โš  Yellow Light (DELAY)

Major bugs still present โ€” fix before launch

Fewer than 30 beta users ready โ€” keep recruiting

Fewer than 10 sellers with listings โ€” seed supply first

Decision Point 3: Scale or Pivot?

Timing: After 6 Months (Month 6)

โœ“ SCALE (Product-Market Fit Achieved)

100+ total users, 50+ active listings

10%+ free-to-paid conversion rate

10+ successful connections, organic growth via word-of-mouth

NPS > 50, users saying "can't live without it"

โ†’ Action: Raise funding, hire team, expand to new geographies/asset classes

โš  PIVOT (Traction But Not PMF)

Users engaged but not paying (conversion < 5%)

Strong buyer side, weak seller side (or vice versa)

One feature/segment working well, others not

โ†’ Action: Analyze what's working, double down on that segment/feature, cut what's not

โœ— STOP (No Path Forward)

Fewer than 50 users after 6 months

Less than 3% conversion to paid consistently

High churn, users don't come back after first visit

Founder burnout, no path to sustainability

โ†’ Action: Gracefully shut down, learn from the experience, move to next opportunity

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