Risk Framework
Every startup faces risks. The key is to identify them early, prioritize by impact, and have concrete mitigation plans. Below are the 7 highest-priority risks for Deployed.
1
Chicken-and-Egg Problem
Likelihood: High | Impact: Critical
Risk: Buyers won't join if there are no listings. Sellers won't list if there are no buyers. Platform dies in infancy.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Seed the supply side first: Manually recruit 20-30 sellers with active listings before opening to buyers
- Leverage existing networks: Use founder's network and relationships to secure first 50 users
- White-glove onboarding: Personally help first 100 users create high-quality listings
- Incentivize early adopters: Free Pro accounts for first 50 sellers who list 3+ deals
- Launch in one geography first: Focus on London or another major hub, not all of Europe at once
2
Verification System Fails
Likelihood: Medium | Impact: Critical
Risk: Fraudulent users slip through verification. One bad actor ruins platform reputation. Users abandon due to trust issues.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Multi-layer verification: Email + LinkedIn + company check + manual review for Enhanced tier
- Zero tolerance policy: Immediate ban for any fraudulent activity, public transparency about why
- Insurance consideration: Explore partnership with verification service (e.g., Onfido, Jumio) for premium tier
- Trust score algorithm: Transparent methodology, users can see how scores are calculated
- Reporting mechanism: Easy way for users to flag suspicious accounts or listings
3
Competitive Response
Likelihood: Medium | Impact: High
Risk: Palico or StepStone notices traction and builds competing features. They have brand recognition and existing users.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Speed advantage: Move fast, ship MVP in 4 months vs. their 18-24 month product cycles
- Product differentiation: Confidentiality-first approach is culturally difficult for them to copy
- Network effects: Once we have verified users, switching costs increase
- Brand positioning: Premium, trust-focused vs. their volume-first approach
- Continuous innovation: Don't stand still — always ship new features faster than they can copy
4
Regulatory Compliance
Likelihood: Medium | Impact: High
Risk: Regulators classify Deployed as a broker-dealer or financial intermediary, requiring expensive licenses and compliance infrastructure.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Pure information model: No transaction execution, no escrow, no payment processing in MVP
- Legal consultation early: Hire fintech-specialized lawyers before launch (budget: €10-15K)
- Clear disclaimers: "Deployed is an information platform, not a broker or advisor"
- GDPR compliance from day one: Data export, deletion, consent management built-in
- Monitor regulatory changes: Subscribe to MiFID II, AIFMD updates, adapt proactively
5
Monetization Fails
Likelihood: Medium | Impact: High
Risk: Users love the free tier but refuse to upgrade. Free-to-paid conversion stays below 5%, making unit economics unsustainable.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Aggressive free tier limits: Max 5 access requests/month, only 1 listing — forces upgrade for serious users
- Value-based pricing experiments: A/B test €79, €99, €129 price points to find optimal conversion
- Usage-based upsells: "You've hit your limit. Upgrade for €99/mo to continue" at point of friction
- Annual discount: 20% off annual plans to lock in revenue and improve retention
- Enterprise focus: If individual conversion is low, pivot to selling team licenses at €500-2K/month
6
Technical Debt Accumulates
Likelihood: High | Impact: Medium
Risk: Rush to ship MVP creates messy codebase. Bugs multiply, new features take longer to build, performance degrades.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Modern, opinionated stack: Next.js + TypeScript + Prisma reduces decision fatigue and enforces patterns
- Code reviews mandatory: No code ships without peer review, even in early days
- 20% time for refactoring: Every sprint includes time to pay down technical debt
- Automated testing: Unit tests for critical flows (auth, payments, access control) from day one
- Documentation culture: Every major feature gets a doc page explaining architecture decisions
7
Founder Burnout / Loss of Motivation
Likelihood: Medium | Impact: Critical
Risk: Solo founder working nights/weekends while holding down a job. 6-12 months to traction is exhausting. Risk of quitting midway.
Mitigation Strategy:
- Set realistic milestones: Break 6-month goal into monthly milestones to maintain momentum
- Find a co-founder or advisor: Someone to share the load and provide accountability
- Sustainable pace: 20 hours/week is more sustainable than 60 hours/week for 2 months then burnout
- Celebrate small wins: First 10 users, first paid customer, first successful deal — acknowledge progress
- Build in public: Share progress on LinkedIn/Twitter for external motivation and feedback
- Have a quit date: If not hitting milestones by Month 6, give yourself permission to reassess
